Prediction of Peripheral Artery Disease Prognosis Using Clinical and Inflammatory Biomarker Data
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose: Inflammatory biomarkers associated with peripheral artery disease (PAD) have been examined separately; however, an algorithm that includes a panel of inflammatory proteins to inform prognosis of PAD could improve predictive accuracy. We developed predictive models for 2-year PAD-related major adverse limb events (MALE) using clinical/inflammatory biomarker data. Methods: We conducted a prognostic study using 2 phases (discovery/validation models). The discovery cohort included 100 PAD patients that were propensity-score matched to 100 non-PAD patients. The validation cohort included 365 patients with PAD and 144 patients without PAD (non-matched). Plasma concentrations of 29 inflammatory proteins were determined at recruitment and the cohorts were followed for 2 years. The outcome of interest was 2-year MALE (composite of major amputation, vascular intervention, or acute limb ischemia). A random forest model was trained with 10-fold cross-validation to predict 2-year MALE using the following input features: 1) clinical characteristics, 2) inflammatory biomarkers that were expressed differentially in PAD vs non-PAD patients, and 3) clinical characteristics and inflammatory biomarkers. Results: The model discovery cohort was well-matched on age, sex, and comorbidities. Of the 29 proteins tested, 5 were elevated in PAD vs non-PAD patients (MMP-7, MMP-10, IL-6, CCL2/MCP-1, and TFPI). For prognosis of 2-year MALE on the validation cohort, our model achieved AUROC 0.63 using clinical features alone and adding inflammatory biomarker levels improved performance to AUROC 0.84. Conclusion: Using clinical characteristics and inflammatory biomarker data, we developed an accurate predictive model for PAD prognosis. Plain Language Summary: Inflammatory biomarkers associated with peripheral artery disease (PAD) have been examined separately; however, an algorithm that includes an inflammatory protein panel to inform prognosis of PAD may improve predictive accuracy. We developed predictive models for 2-year major adverse limb events (MALE) using clinical characteristics (demographics, comorbidities, and medications) and a panel of 5 PAD-specific inflammatory biomarkers (MMP-7, MMP-10, IL-6, CCL2/MCP-1, and TFPI) that achieved excellent performance on an independent validation cohort (AUROC 0.84). The models developed through this study may support PAD risk-stratification and targeted management strategies. Keywords: inflammatory biomarkers, predictive model, prognosis, peripheral artery disease
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it