Genetic factors associated with reasons for clinical trial stoppage
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many drug discovery projects are started but few progress fully through clinical trials to approval. Previous work has shown that human genetics support for the therapeutic hypothesis increases the chance of trial progression. Here, we applied natural language processing to classify the free-text reasons for 28,561 clinical trials that stopped before their endpoints were met. We then evaluated these classes in light of the underlying evidence for the therapeutic hypothesis and target properties. We found that trials are more likely to stop because of a lack of efficacy in the absence of strong genetic evidence from human populations or genetically modified animal models. Furthermore, certain trials are more likely to stop for safety reasons if the drug target gene is highly constrained in human populations and if the gene is broadly expressed across tissues. These results support the growing use of human genetics to evaluate targets for drug discovery programs.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.131 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it