European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Heatwaves and dry spells are major climate hazards with far-reaching implications for health, economy, agriculture, and ecosystems. The frequency of compound hot and dry summers in Europe has risen in recent years. Here we present an examination of past extreme summers and compare them to future climate conditions. We use reanalysis data (2001–2022) and model data at three global warming levels: +1.2 °C, +2 °C, and +3 °C for nine selected sub-regions. Key findings indicate a significant increase in the frequency of most extreme past occurrences under 2 °C and 3 °C warming scenarios. For specific summers, the occurrence probability rises by up to 5–6 times from 2 °C to 3 °C. Moreover, our analysis reveals a notable northward shift in the climatology of hot and dry summers under 3 °C warming. The hot and dry climate observed in Eastern Europe under current conditions is anticipated to extend into substantial parts of the Baltic coast, Finland, and Scandinavia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".