European hot and dry summers are projected to become more frequent and expand northwards
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Heatwaves and dry spells are major climate hazards with far-reaching implications for health, economy, agriculture, and ecosystems. The frequency of compound hot and dry summers in Europe has risen in recent years. Here we present an examination of past extreme summers and compare them to future climate conditions. We use reanalysis data (2001–2022) and model data at three global warming levels: +1.2 °C, +2 °C, and +3 °C for nine selected sub-regions. Key findings indicate a significant increase in the frequency of most extreme past occurrences under 2 °C and 3 °C warming scenarios. For specific summers, the occurrence probability rises by up to 5–6 times from 2 °C to 3 °C. Moreover, our analysis reveals a notable northward shift in the climatology of hot and dry summers under 3 °C warming. The hot and dry climate observed in Eastern Europe under current conditions is anticipated to extend into substantial parts of the Baltic coast, Finland, and Scandinavia.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it