Change point detection via Gaussian mixture model
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Change point detection aims to find abrupt changes in time series data. These changes denote substantial modifications to the process; these can be modeled as a change in the distribution (in location, scale, or trend). Traditional changepoint detection methods often rely on a cost function to assess if a change occurred in a series. Here, change point detection is investigated in a mixture-model-based clustering framework and a novel change point detection algorithm is developed using a finite mixture of regressions with concomitant variables. Through the introduction of a label correction mechanism, the unstructured clustering-based labels are treated as ordered and distinct segment labels. This approach can detect change points in both univariate and multivariate time series, and different kinds of change can be captured using a parsimonious family of models. Performance is illustrated on both simulated and real data. Journal of Statistical Research 2024, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 197-219.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it