Efficient semiparametric estimation in two‐sample comparison via semisupervised learning
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We develop a general semisupervised framework for statistical inference in the two‐sample comparison setting. Although the supervised Mann–Whitney statistic outperforms many estimators in the two‐sample problem for nonnormally distributed responses, it is excessively inefficient because it ignores large amounts of unlabelled information. To borrow strength from unlabelled data, we propose a class of efficient and adaptive estimators that use two‐step semiparametric imputation. The probabilistic index model is adopted primarily to achieve dimension reduction for multivariate covariates, and a follow‐up reweighting step balances the contributions of labelled and unlabelled data. The asymptotic properties of our estimator are derived with variance comparison through a phase diagram. Efficiency theory shows our estimators achieve the semiparametric variance lower bound if the probabilistic index model is correctly specified, and are more efficient than their supervised counterpart when the model is not degenerate. The asymptotic variance is estimated through a two‐step perturbation resampling procedure. To gauge the finite sample performance, we conducted extensive simulation studies which verify the adaptive nature of our methods with respect to model misspecification. To illustrate the merits of our proposed method, we analyze a dataset concerning homelessness in Los Angeles.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it