Projected distribution shifts of resident monarch butterflies and consequences for migratory monarchs
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
• Large increase in suitable area for the winter breeding populations by 2100. • Increased overlap between the distribution of migratory and resident monarchs. • Increased risk of disease spread from resident monarchs to the migratory monarchs. The charismatic migratory populations of monarch butterflies have declined precipitously in North America. A contributing threat might be the expansion of winter breeding populations in the southern portions of their historical eastern and western summer breeding ranges. Recent research suggests individuals from winter breeding populations are prone to high parasite burdens, resulting in lower fitness compared to migratory counterparts. Temporal and spatial overlap between these individuals and migratory monarchs in both fall and spring mean that interbreeding and use of the same host plants could result in transfer of parasites, especially the debilitating neogregarine Ophryocystis elektroscirrha , increasing the parasite load in migrating populations. We aimed to predict how climate change could affect the distribution of winter breeding monarchs in North America. We used ecological niche modeling of monarch larval observations for winter and current climate data to predict the current and future distributions of winter breeding monarchs across North America. Our analyses predict up to a 38% and 160% increase and a 574 and 340 km northward shift in suitable area for winter breeding monarchs in response to climate change by 2100 for eastern and western migratory populations, respectively. Our results support concerns over potential risk of disease spread from resident monarchs to the migratory monarch populations. In both eastern and western migratory populations this is due to an increase in overlap between the resident population and the areas through which the migratory populations travel during fall and spring migrations. Our results support calls for controlling the spread of non-native tropical milkweed, as winter breeding monarchs depend on this plant for reproduction.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it