Projected distribution shifts of resident monarch butterflies and consequences for migratory monarchs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
• Large increase in suitable area for the winter breeding populations by 2100. • Increased overlap between the distribution of migratory and resident monarchs. • Increased risk of disease spread from resident monarchs to the migratory monarchs. The charismatic migratory populations of monarch butterflies have declined precipitously in North America. A contributing threat might be the expansion of winter breeding populations in the southern portions of their historical eastern and western summer breeding ranges. Recent research suggests individuals from winter breeding populations are prone to high parasite burdens, resulting in lower fitness compared to migratory counterparts. Temporal and spatial overlap between these individuals and migratory monarchs in both fall and spring mean that interbreeding and use of the same host plants could result in transfer of parasites, especially the debilitating neogregarine Ophryocystis elektroscirrha , increasing the parasite load in migrating populations. We aimed to predict how climate change could affect the distribution of winter breeding monarchs in North America. We used ecological niche modeling of monarch larval observations for winter and current climate data to predict the current and future distributions of winter breeding monarchs across North America. Our analyses predict up to a 38% and 160% increase and a 574 and 340 km northward shift in suitable area for winter breeding monarchs in response to climate change by 2100 for eastern and western migratory populations, respectively. Our results support concerns over potential risk of disease spread from resident monarchs to the migratory monarch populations. In both eastern and western migratory populations this is due to an increase in overlap between the resident population and the areas through which the migratory populations travel during fall and spring migrations. Our results support calls for controlling the spread of non-native tropical milkweed, as winter breeding monarchs depend on this plant for reproduction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".