An interpretable machine learning approach for predicting the capacity and failure mode of reinforced concrete columns
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
During seismic events, reinforced concrete (RC) columns play a crucial role in maintaining buildings’ structural integrity. This motivated engineers and practitioners to search for key parameters that influence the load-carrying capacity and failure mechanisms of such columns. However, the complexity and nonlinearity of seismic effects along with the intricate nature of RC columns as a composite system challenge the capabilities of analytical and empirical approaches to accurately capture the response of RC columns. Subsequently, the present study utilizes Machine Learning (ML) techniques to identify the failure modes and predict the corresponding capacities of RC columns based on both their geometrical and material properties. Decision trees and different ensemble methods were employed to predict both the columns’ failure mode and ultimate capacity. A multivariate dataset consisting of 486 cyclically loaded rectangular and circular columns was used to develop and validate the models. In addition, different embedded variable selection techniques were employed to evaluate the significance of input parameters in predicting the performance of columns. Moreover, partial dependence plots and accumulated local effects were employed to uncover the interrelationships between the input features and the modelled outputs. The developed models yielded an average accuracy of 90% and 95% for predicting the failure mode and ultimate capacity of RC columns, respectively. Given such high accuracy, it can be inferred that, ML techniques have the potential to provide efficient and reliable prediction tools to support seismic design and assessment decisions - mitigating seismic risks and empowering resilience planning in the face of extreme events.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it