Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need for efficient and mathematically rigorous methods to analyze epidemiological time series and genetic data. This project introduces and evaluates various methods for estimating infectious disease parameters. We employed a dynamic Markov chain model incorporating random variables tracking infected and susceptible individuals, as well as their coalescent times. Our objective was to assess the accuracy of different techniques in predicting disease characteristics based on this model. Simulation studies of various existing parameter estimation methods revealed that prediction accuracy falls drastically when a recovery rate is introduced. In response to the limitations of existing methods, we initiated the development of a novel model which would incorporate lineages, allowing us to use phylogenetic trees to estimate parameters. This would lead to an improvement in parameter estimates, especially with a recovery rate, as phylogenetic trees contain more information than the types of data used in existing parameter estimation methods.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it