Completion of the Central Italy daily precipitation instrumental data series from 1951 to 2019
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Precipitation is a critical part of the global hydrological cycle that determines the distribution of water resources. It is also an essential meteorological variable used as input for hydroclimatic models and projections. However, precipitation data frequently lack complete series, especially at daily and sub‐daily precipitation stations, which are usually large, bulky, and complex. To address this, gap filling is commonly used to produce complete hydrometeorological data series without missing values. Several gap‐filling methods have been developed and improved. This study seeks to fill the gaps of 201 daily precipitation time series in Central Italy by localizing the approach used to generate the Serially Complete dataset for the Planet Earth (SC‐Earth). This method combines the outcome of 15 strategies based on four various gap‐filling techniques (quantile mapping, spatial interpolation, machine learning, and multi‐strategy merging). These strategies employ the daily dataset of the neighbouring stations and the matched ERA5 data to estimate missing values at the target stations. Both raw data and the final serially complete station datasets (SCDs) underwent comprehensive quality control. Many accuracy indicators have been utilized to evaluate the performance of the strategies' estimations and the final SCD, such as Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root mean square error (RMSE), Relative bias (Bias %), and Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE″). Multi‐strategy merging strategy based on the Modified Kling‐Gupta efficiency (MS 1 ) shows the highest performance as an individual precipitation gap‐filling strategy. However, the machine learning strategy using random forest (ML 3 ) has the most outstanding share in the final estimates among all other strategies. In the end, the temporal–spatial performance of the final SCD is promising and depends on the pattern of the missing values (MV%). The mean values of KGE″, CC, variability ( α ), and bias term ( β ) are 0.9, 0.93, 1.064, and 4.98 × 10 −7 , respectively.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it