Between the ballot and the bullet: rebel-to-party transformations and the structure of the competitive field
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When rebel groups transition to electoral parties and participate in the democratic process, the prospects of peace are often fragile. We argue that rebel parties’ capacity to effectively participate in the electoral arena and contribute to post-conflict stability is contingent on the nature and legacies of the wartime competitive field. Where rebels and politicians shared claims of representation over their constituents in wartime, we argue that elections-related violence is likely in postwar elections when the rebels transition towards political parties. These former rebel parties challenges established electoral holds of political actors who previously represented the community at the ballot box while collaborating with insurgents. The transformation from wartime allies to direct electoral competition creates new incentives for violence, especially where violence is already normalized. Conversely, where established politicians maintain hegemonic representation of their constituency, they create strong barriers to entry for former insurgents in the electoral realm. As a result, the incentives for violence are much reduced. We analyse the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s transformation into the United Bangsamoro Justice Party after the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.006 | 0.010 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".