A multidimensional machine learning framework for LST reconstruction and climate variable analysis in forest fire occurrence
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets play a crucial role in understanding the complex interplay between forest fires, climate variables, and vegetation dynamics. This study is divided into two primary parts: the first part investigates the predictive performance of a machine learning framework based on CatBoost and XGBoost models in estimating LST across different land cover classes in Alberta, Canada. On the test set, for LST-Day data, CatBoost and XGBoost achieved Median Absolute Errors (MedAE) of approximately 1.434 °C and 1.425 °C, respectively. For LST-Night data, also on the test set, the MedAE values were approximately 1.186 °C for CatBoost and 1.176 °C for XGBoost. The second part explores the intricate relationships between climatic variables—LST, precipitation, and relative humidity—forest fire occurrences, and vegetation dynamics in various subregions. The findings revealed complex interactions, with high LST, reduced precipitation, and humidity associated with increased forest fire activity and subsequent changes in vegetation patterns, particularly in the Central Mixedwood, Dry Mixedwood, and Montane subregions. A notable potential association was identified between high LST, reduced precipitation and humidity, and increased forest fire activity in these areas. These climate change impacts and fire events were found to influence ecological processes, altering species composition, reducing biodiversity, and potentially disrupting ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling. These insights are crucial for informing adaptive forest management strategies aimed at understanding and mitigating the cascading effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation dynamics in Alberta's diverse landscapes. • CatBoost and XGBoost models predict LST with varying accuracy by land cover type. • High LST, low precipitation, low humidity linked to increased forest fires in Alberta. • Forest fires shift species, homogenize landscapes, and reduce ecosystem resilience. • Study informs adaptive management in Alberta's subregions amid climate change.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it