A Federated Large Language Model for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Long-term time series forecasting in centralized environments poses unique challenges regarding data privacy, communication overhead, and scalability. To address these challenges, we propose FedTime, a federated large language model (LLM) tailored for long-range time series prediction. Specifically, we introduce a federated pre-trained LLM with fine-tuning and alignment strategies. Prior to the learning process, we employ K-means clustering to partition edge devices or clients into distinct clusters, thereby facilitating more focused model training. We also incorporate channel independence and patching to better preserve local semantic information, ensuring that important contextual details are retained while minimizing the risk of information loss. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our FedTime model through extensive experiments on various real-world forecasting benchmarks, showcasing substantial improvements over recent approaches. In addition, we demonstrate the efficiency of FedTime in streamlining resource usage, resulting in reduced communication overhead.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it