Stock price prediction portfolio optimization using different risk measures on application of genetic algorithm for machine learning regressions
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This research aims to enhance portfolio selection by integrating machine learning regression algorithms for predicting stock returns with various risk measures. These measures include mean-value-at-risk (VaR) variance (Var), semi-variance mean-absolute-deviation (MAD) and conditional value-at-risk (C-VaR). Addressing gaps in existing literature. Traditional methods lack adaptability to dynamic market conditions. We propose a hybrid approach optimized by genetic algorithms. The study employs multiple machine learning models. These include Random Forest, AdaBoost XGBoost, Support Vector Machine Regression (SVR) K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These models are used to forecast stock returns. Utilizing monthly data from the Tehran Stock Exchange, the results indicate that the genetic algorithm prediction model combined with mean-VaR, Var semi-variance and MAD, produces the most efficient portfolios. These portfolios offer superior returns with minimized risk compared to other models. This hybrid strategy provides a robust and efficient method for investors aiming to optimize returns while managing risk effectively. To implement this approach successfully it is crucial to balance investments. This involves both traditional and alternative asset classes, ensuring diversification. It also capitalizes on market opportunities. Regular review and adjustment of fund allocation are essential. Maintain an optimized strategy for maximum returns and minimal risk.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it