Recursively Feasible Chance-Constrained Model Predictive Control Under Gaussian Mixture Model Uncertainty
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present a chance-constrained model predictive control (MPC) framework under Gaussian mixture model (GMM) uncertainty. Specifically, we consider the uncertainty that arises from predicting future behaviors of moving obstacles, which may exhibit multiple modes (for example, turning left or right). To address multimodal uncertainty distribution, we propose three MPC formulations: nominal chance-constrained planning, robust chance-constrained planning, and contingency planning. We prove that closed-loop trajectories generated by the three planners are safe. The approaches differ in conservativeness and performance guarantee. In particular, the robust chance-constrained planner is recursively feasible under certain assumptions on the propagation of prediction uncertainty. On the other hand, the contingency planner generates a less conservative closed-loop trajectory than the nominal planner. We validate our planners using state-of-the-art trajectory prediction algorithms in autonomous driving simulators.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it