Win, lose, or draw: Evaluating dynamic thermal niches of northeast Pacific groundfish
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding the dynamic relationship between marine species and their changing environments is critical for ecosystem based management, particularly as coastal ecosystems experience rapid change (e.g., general warming, marine heat waves). In this paper, we present a novel statistical approach to robustly estimate and track the thermal niches of 30 marine fishes along the west coast of North America. Leveraging three long-term fisheries-independent datasets, we use spatiotemporal modeling tools to capture spatiotemporal variation in species densities. Estimates from our models are then used to generate species-specific estimates of thermal niches through time at several scales: coastwide and for each of the three regions. By synthesizing data across regions and time scales, our modeling approach provides insights into how these marine species may be tracking or responding to changes in temperature. While we did not find evidence of consistent temperature-density relationships among regions, we are able to contrast differences across species: Dover sole and shortspine thornyhead have relatively broad thermal niche estimates that are static over time, whereas several semi-pelagic species (e.g., Pacific hake, walleye pollock) have niches that are both becoming warmer over time and simultaneously narrowing. This illustrates how several economically and ecologically valuable species are facing contrasting fates in a changing environment, with potential consequences for fisheries and ecosystems. Our modeling approach is flexible and can be easily extended to other species or ecosystems, as well as other environmental variables. Results from these models may be broadly useful to scientists, managers, and stakeholders—monitoring trends in the direction and variability of thermal niches may be useful in identifying species that are more susceptible to environmental change, and results of this work can form quantitative metrics that may be included in climate vulnerability assessments, estimation of dynamic essential fish habitat, and assessments of climate risk posed to fishing communities.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.017 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it