Cross‐population validation of the PreMO risk indicator for predicting myopia onset in children
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: The Predicting Myopia Onset and progression (PreMO) risk indicator, developed using data generated from white children in the UK, incorporates age, spherical equivalent refraction (SER), axial length (AL) and parental myopia to stratify the likelihood of developing myopia. This study evaluated the PreMO's predictive accuracy using prospective datasets from independent samples of children in Hong Kong (HK) and an ethnically diverse cohort of children in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Non-myopic children (SER > -0.50 D) aged 6-8 and 9-10 years were scored using the PreMO risk indicator framework, integrating baseline cycloplegic SER, AL and parental myopia data. Scores were assigned risk categories as follows: 0 = no risk, 1-3 = low risk, 4-6 = moderate risk and 7-9 = high risk. SER at ≥15 years of age was used to define refractive outcomes as 'myopic' or 'not myopic'. PreMO's predictive accuracy was analysed via Receiver Operator Characteristic curves, with Youden's J-Index identifying the optimal risk score threshold. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve were determined and compared with those of singular predictors, that is, SER < +0.75 D and AL ≥ 23.07 mm at 6-8 years. RESULTS: In the cohort of children aged 6-8 years, a PreMO risk score ≥ 4 exhibited high sensitivity in predicting myopia onset in UK (0.97) and HK (0.94) children, with high specificity in UK (0.96) and moderate specificity in HK (0.64) children. In UK children aged 6-8 years, the PreMO outperformed singular predictors such as SER and AL. Among HK children aged 9-10 years, the PreMO score maintained high sensitivity (0.90) and moderate specificity (0.72). CONCLUSIONS: A PreMO risk score ≥ 4 is a strong predictive indicator for future myopia onset, particularly in UK children. Despite high sensitivity in both UK and HK cohorts, specificity varied, indicating the need for contextual application of the tool, particularly in pre-myopic Asian children.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".