Digital twin-centered hybrid data-driven multi-stage deep learning framework for enhanced nuclear reactor power prediction
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The accurate and efficient modeling of nuclear reactor transients is crucial for ensuring safe and optimal reactor operation. Traditional physics-based models, while valuable, can be computationally intensive and may not fully capture the complexities of real-world reactor behavior. This paper introduces a novel hybrid digital twin-focused multi-stage deep learning framework that addresses these limitations, offering a faster and more robust solution for predicting the final steady-state power of reactor transients. By leveraging a combination of feed-forward neural networks with both classification and regression stages, and training on a unique dataset that integrates real-world measurements of reactor power and controls state from the Missouri University of Science and Technology Reactor (MSTR) with noise-enhanced simulated data, our approach achieves remarkable accuracy (96% classification, 2.3% MAPE). The incorporation of simulated data with noise significantly improves the model’s generalization capabilities, mitigating the risk of overfitting. Designed as a digital twin supporting system, this framework integrates real-time, synchronized predictions of reactor state transitions, enabling dynamic operational monitoring and optimization. This innovative solution not only enables rapid and precise prediction of reactor behavior but also has the potential to revolutionize nuclear reactor operations, facilitating enhanced safety protocols, optimized performance, and streamlined decision-making processes. By aligning data-driven insights with the principles of digital twins, this work lays the groundwork for adaptable and scalable solutions in nuclear system management. • The study proposes a multi-stage deep learning framework that combines classification and regression stages to predict the final steady-state power of reactor transients. • The framework is trained on a hybrid dataset that includes both real-world measurements and simulated data. • The use of simulated data with noise enhances the model’s robustness against overfitting. • The proposed framework demonstrates high accuracy in predicting reactor power. • The study’s findings suggest that the proposed framework offers a promising alternative for nuclear engineering applications.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it