A potential exomoon from the predicted planet obliquity of <a:math xmlns:a="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"> <a:mi>β</a:mi> </a:math> Pictoris b
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Planet obliquity is the alignment or misalignment of a planet spin axis relative to its orbit normal. In a multiplanet system, this obliquity is a valuable signature of planet formation and evolutionary history. The young <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> Pictoris system hosts two coplanar super-Jupiters and upcoming JWST observations of this system will constrain the obliquity of the outer planet, <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> Pictoris b. This will be the first planet obliquity measurement in an extrasolar, multiplanet system. First, we show that this new planet obliquity is likely misaligned by using a wide range of simulated observations in combination with published measurements of the system. Motivated by current explanations for the tilted planet obliquities in the Solar System, we consider collisions and secular spin-orbit resonances. While collisions are unlikely to occur, secular spin-orbit resonance modified by the presence of an exomoon around the outer planet can excite a large obliquity. The largest induced obliquities ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>∼</mml:mo> <mml:msup> <mml:mn>60</mml:mn> <mml:mo>∘</mml:mo> </mml:msup> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> ) occur for moons with at least a Neptune-mass and a semimajor axis of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.03</mml:mn> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.05</mml:mn> <mml:mrow> <mml:mspace width="0.222em"/> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi> <mml:mi mathvariant="normal">u</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> ( <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>40</mml:mn> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>70</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> planet radii). For certain orbital alignments, such a moon may observably transit the planet (transit depth of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>3</mml:mn> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>7</mml:mn> <mml:mi>%</mml:mi> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> , orbital period of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>3</mml:mn> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>7</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:math> weeks). Thus, a nonzero obliquity detection of <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> Pictoris b implies that it may host a large exomoon. Although we focus on the <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"> <mml:mi>β</mml:mi> </mml:math> Pictoris system, the idea that the presence of exomoons can excite high obliquities is very general and applicable to other exoplanetary systems.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it