Enhancing supply chain resilience through supervised machine learning: supplier performance analysis and risk profiling for a multi-class classification problem
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose This paper explores the application of supervised machine learning (ML) classification models to address supplier performance analysis and risk profiling as a multi-class classification problem. The research highlights that current applications of machine learning in supplier selection primarily focus on binary classification problems, underscoring a significant gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach This research paper opts for a structured approach to solve supplier selection and risk profiling using supervised machine learning multi-class classification models and prediction probabilities. The study involved a synthetic data set of 1,600 historical data points, creating a supplier selection framework that simulates current supply chain (SC) performance. The “Supplier Analysis and Selection ML Module” guided supplier selection recommendations based on ML analysis. Real-world variability is introduced through random seeds, impacting actual delivery dates, quantity delivered and quality performance. Supervised ML models, with hyperparameter tuning, enable multi-class classification of suppliers, considering past delivery performance and risk calculations. Findings The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the supervised ML-based approach in ensuring consistent supplier selection across multi-class classification problems. Beyond evaluating past delivery performance, it introduces a new dimension by predicting and assessing supplier risks through ML-generated prediction probabilities. This can enhance overall SC visibility and help organizations optimize strategies associated with risk mitigation, inventory management and customer service. Research limitations/implications The findings highlight the adaptability of ML-based methodologies in dynamic SC environments, providing a proactive means to identify and manage risks. These insights are vital for organizations aiming to bolster SC resilience, particularly amid uncertainties. Practical implications The practical implications of this study are significant for both commercial and humanitarian supply chain management (SCM). For commercial applications, the ML-based methodology allows businesses to make more informed supplier selection decisions, reducing risks and improving operational efficiency. In disaster and humanitarian SC contexts, the use of ML can improve preparedness and resource allocation, ensuring that critical supplies reach affected areas promptly. Social implications The study’s implications extend to disaster and humanitarian SCM, where timely and efficient delivery is critical for saving lives and alleviating suffering. ML tools can improve preparedness, resource allocation and coordination in these contexts, enhancing the resilience and responsiveness of humanitarian supply chains. Originality/value Unlike conventional methods focused on quality, cost and delivery performance aspects, the current study introduces supervised ML to identify and assess supplier risks through prediction probabilities for multi-class classification problems (delivery performance as late, on-time and ahead), offering a refined understanding of supplier selection in dynamic SC environments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".