Fast estimation of the Renshaw-Haberman model and its variants
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In mortality modelling, cohort effects are often taken into consideration as they add insights about variations in mortality across different generations. Statistically speaking, models such as the Renshaw-Haberman model may provide a better fit to historical data compared to their counterparts that incorporate no cohort effects. However, when such models are estimated using an iterative maximum likelihood method in which parameters are updated one at a time, convergence is typically slow and may not even be reached within a reasonably established maximum number of iterations. Among others, the slow convergence problem hinders the study of parameter uncertainty through bootstrapping methods. In this paper, we propose an intuitive estimation method that minimizes the sum of squared errors between actual and fitted log central death rates. The complications arising from the incorporation of cohort effects are overcome by formulating part of the optimization as a principal component analysis with missing values. Using mortality data from various populations, we demonstrate that our proposed method produces satisfactory estimation results and is significantly more efficient compared to the traditional likelihood-based approach.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it