Advancing Human Health Risk Assessment Through a Stochastic Methodology for Mobile Source Air Toxics
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mobile source air toxics (MSATs) are major contributors to urban air pollution, especially near high-traffic roadways, where populations face elevated pollutant exposures. Traditional human health risk assessments, based on deterministic methods, often overlook variability in exposure and the vulnerabilities of sensitive subpopulations. This study introduces and applies a new stochastic modeling approach, utilizing Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate cumulative cancer risks from MSATs exposure through inhalation and ingestion pathways. This method captures variability in exposure scenarios, providing detailed health risk assessments, particularly for vulnerable groups such as children and the elderly. This approach was demonstrated in a case study conducted in Saint Paul, Minnesota, using 2019 traffic data. Deterministic models estimated cumulative cancer risks for adults at 6.24E-02 (unitless lifetime cancer risk), while stochastic modeling revealed a broader range, with the 95th percentile reaching 4.98E-02. The 95th percentile, used in regulatory evaluations, identifies high-risk scenarios overlooked by deterministic methods. This research advances the understanding of MSATs exposure risks by integrating spatiotemporal dynamics, identifying high-risk zones and vulnerable subpopulations, and supporting resource allocation for targeted pollution control measures. Future applications of this methodology include expanding stochastic modeling to evaluate ecological risks from mobile emissions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".