Beyond Adaptive Control: A Control Method for Nonlinear Systems With Uncertainties, Applied to COVID-19
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
When the outcome of an action cannot be precisely known, it is difficult to select actions to get a desired result. This problem can be caused by uncertain parameters, such as not knowing how slippery a road is when driving in icy conditions. Adaptive control techniques can estimate uncertainties using past measurements, but the confidence in these estimates is not used to inform future control actions. Dual control, an improvement on adaptive control, can estimate the reductions in uncertainty that will result from control actions and probes the system to identify the uncertain parameters to a sufficient level to optimize the desired goal. However, existing dual control approaches have been computationally intractable for all but the simplest of control problems. Here we show that our novel and computationally efficient dual iterative linear quadratic Gaussian controller outcompetes an adaptive iterative linear quadratic Gaussian controller, using the control of COVID-19 as an example application. The dual controller performed 6.4% better than the adaptive controller in selecting policies to minimize the social and economic costs associated with both the policies and case counts using an established model of COVID-19 with sixteen uncertain parameters. Our results demonstrate that dual control is a powerful control tool that can handle complex, nonlinear, and stochastic systems in a robust and actively adaptive way while improving their performance.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it