CANDU Station Blackout D-PSA with RAVEN and TRACE Software
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Nuclear energy provides a low-carbon source of electricity that provides consistent and reliable power in a cost-effective manner. However, the accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011 demonstrated several important lessons on nuclear power plant severe events and risk mitigation and led to important changes in designs, improvement in emergency planning, and better understanding of external event hazards. Since 2011, the Fukushima accident has also led to new methodologies to characterize risk for low-probability events such as station blackout (SBO). In particular, large external events that lead to loss of Class IV power, and subsequent failures of backup power (Class III power) and or emergency power, and where the outcome may be dependent on human/emergency response functions, require additional methodological development to better quantify the risks and consequences. Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (D-PSA) is a set of stochastic tools that allows the integration of technology availability (e.g. as in standard Probabilistic Safety Assessment), human action probability, uncertainty in predictive models, and possible deviations in the timing of any automatic or human-initiated actions. It allows the analysis of accident consequences with different mitigation strategies and action timings and can include the evaluation of both safety (e.g. dose) and/or economic consequences. It can also be used as part of a larger risk informed methodology such as the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization approach proposed by the U.S. Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program to rank safety system and operator actions in terms of their probable impact on an event. The RAVEN framework developed under the LWRS Program is used as a D-PSA driver along with the TRACE thermal-hydraulic code to quantify risk evolution during transient event sequences. This paper uses the Dynamic Event Tree approach to analyze the critical time to failure for a SBO in a CANada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) power plant and the impact of system reliabilities and timing on event outcomes.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it