Simulation decomposition analysis of the Iowa food-water-energy system
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study applies global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to the Iowa Food-Water-Energy system, focusing on nitrogen export into the Mississippi River. A binning method combined with simulation decomposition (SimDec) quantifies and visualizes the influence of crucial aggregate input variables — manure nitrogen (MN), commercial nitrogen (CN), grain nitrogen (GN), and fixation nitrogen (FN) — on nitrogen surplus (NS) at the county level. Unlike traditional Sobol’ indices, the binning method captures dependent variables. In addition, the SimDec procedure provides a detailed visual representation of how these dependencies and interactions drive the nitrogen variability. MN is identified as the most influential factor, followed by CN, with FN and GN having less impact. The study also performs GSA on the low-level input variables, enhancing the overall interpretability of the sensitivity analysis. This approach offers actionable insights for improving nitrogen management practices and contributes to GSA literature by showcasing the analysis of aggregate variables. • SimDec shows nitrogen surplus is driven by county-level manure nitrogen variability. • Visualization reveals how aggregate variables interact in nitrogen export dynamics. • First study analyzing sensitivity transformation across multiple input levels. • Links original inputs to aggregate variables, offering insights into model behavior.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it