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Record W4408431473 · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-13262

Using Machine Learning Algorithms for Spatial Prediction of Soil Organic Carbon Based on Environmental Variables and Soil Physicochemical Parameters in the Mediterranean Region

2025· preprint· en· W4408431473 on OpenAlexaff
Hassan Mosaid, Ahmed Barakat, Kingsley John

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicSoil Geostatistics and Mapping
Canadian institutionsDalhousie University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMediterranean climateSoil carbonEnvironmental scienceSoil scienceCarbon fibersAlgorithmComputer scienceSoil waterGeography

Abstract

Soil plays a key role in storing organic carbon, which is a critical indicator of soil fertility and overall quality. Understanding the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) and its influencing factors is essential for promoting sustainable land management. This study applied four machine learning models such as Random Forest (RF), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Cubist to enhance SOCS prediction in the Srou catchment, part of the Upper Oum Er-Rbia watershed in Morocco. A dataset of 120 samples was collected, with 80% used for model training and 20% for validation. Boruta’s feature selection and multicollinearity tests identified nine key factors influencing SOCS. Spatial maps generated from the models were validated using statistical indicators. The RF model showed the highest predictive accuracy (R² = 0.76, RMSE = 0.52 Mg C/ha), followed by SVM and Cubist, while kNN had the lowest performance (R² = 0.31, RMSE = 0.94 Mg C/ha). Key predictors for SOCS included bulk density, pH, electrical conductivity, and calcium carbonate. The proposed machine learning approach demonstrates significant potential for mapping SOCS in similar semi-arid environments.

Stored with the screening record, where it is evidence for the labels above.

How this classification was reachedexpand

The three-model screen

all 5,600 screened works →

All three models called this out of scope.

stratum: aff_core · design weight: 5595.24 (the sample is stratified; any rate computed without the weight is wrong)
Claude Opus 4.8OUT
genre: empirical
about Canada: no
confidence: high

Machine learning spatial prediction of soil organic carbon in a Moroccan catchment; the object is soil carbon mapping.

GPT-5.6 (high)OUT
genre: empirical
about Canada: no
confidence: high

The work predicts soil organic carbon using machine learning, not research practice.

Grok 4.5OUT
genre: empirical
about Canada: no
confidence: high

ML prediction of soil organic carbon; environmental domain application, not metaresearch.

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.003
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.028
Threshold uncertainty score0.000

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.003
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.028
GPT teacher head0.237
Teacher spread0.209 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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