Bridging the Fleet Distribution Data Gap with Satellite Imagery and Deep Learning for GHG Estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Precise quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important for better urban sustainability. Transportation is one of the primary contributing sources of greenhouse gas emissions. To quantify better on-road GHG emissions, it is essential to decode fleet distribution. However, globally, many cities do not have the infrastructure to calculate a fleet distribution. Therefore, there will always be an uncertain error in the on-road GHG emissions estimation. However, very high-resolution satellite data can be helpful to overcome this gap due to its global temporal coverage. Hence, this study proposes a deep learning method, Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Faster R-CNN), and You Look Only Once (YOLO) based vehicle detection to identify the vehicles and vehicle categories from the very high-resolution satellite data and estimate the fleet distribution. The results show that our model can identify, Passenger Cars, Buses, Trucks, and Large Passenger Cars with the precision of 93.30%, 79.50%, 78.90%, and 81.15%, respectively. We applied this model to temporally available satellite images of Phoenix and calculated the fleet distribution and calculated the FFCO2 based on that fleet distribution and compared it with FFCO2 estimated using CURB dataset fleet distribution. Results show that CURB data-based FFOC2 is over-predicting by 22%, while using fleet distribution estimated by this method, FFCO2 over-predicting by 17% w.r.t VULCAN. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of satellite-based fleet distribution estimation for improving FFCO₂ quantification in cities lacking robust data infrastructure. This approach provides a scalable and data-driven pathway to more accurate urban emissions modeling, enabling better-informed urban planning and sustainability efforts.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it