Is there a ‘Youthquake’? The Structure of Party Competition and Age Differences in Voting
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Why do age differences matter for voting in some countries and not in others? Despite the prevailing narrative that a ‘youthquake’ in voting is occurring across established democracies, age effects vary considerably across countries. We seek to explain this apparent contradiction through three studies, using large comparative survey data (the World Political Cleavages and Inequality Database and the European Election Study voter survey) and survey data from Denmark and Great-Britain. We find that the explanation for variation in age differences lies with the structure of party competition and the policy positions of the major parties. When left parties adopt a progressive position on the sociocultural dimension, younger people are attracted to the political left; when parties do not align themselves on this dimension, there are no significant age differences in voting in voting for the left. The findings suggest that party positioning structures age variations in voting, not social dynamics.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it