A test of significance for Benford’s law based on the Chebyshev distance
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We show, by means of a numerical simulation, that the asymptotic (n ≥ 100) cumulative distribution function of the Chebyshev distance statistic is well approximated by a log-normal function with parameters μ = −0.6183 and σ = 0.3561 in the null hypothesis that Benford’s law holds. The deviations of the cumulative function observed in Monte Carlo simulations from the empirical one are below 0.5%. This makes the statistical test based on the Chebyshev statistic accurate at a level of 1% when testing Benford’s law for moderately large and large numbers of data points. Test values of the Chebyshev distance as a function of the sample size are also estimated empirically by performing a Monte Carlo simulation in the case of low n (10 ≤ n ≤ 99). The efficacy and power of the goodness-of-fit test based on the Chebyshev estimator are analyzed and compared with those based on the Pearson χ2 and Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics. Finally, an application of the Chebyshev test to the annual deaths counts by country is discussed. Journal of Statistical Research 2024, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 259-277
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it