A Data-Driven Intelligent Methodology for Developing Explainable Diagnostic Model for Febrile Diseases
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Febrile diseases such as malaria, typhoid fever, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS pose significant diagnostic challenges in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). Misdiagnosis leads to delayed treatment, increased healthcare costs, and higher mortality rates. This study presents a prototype diagnostic framework integrating machine learning (ML) and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to enhance diagnostic performance, interpretability, and usability in resource-constrained settings. A dataset of 3914 patient records from secondary and tertiary healthcare facilities was used to train and validate predictive models, employing Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boost, and Multi-Layer Perceptron with optimized hyperparameters. To ensure transparency, XAI techniques such as Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) and Large Language Models (LLMs) were integrated, enabling clinicians to understand model predictions. A prototype mobile-based diagnostic system was developed to explore its feasibility for real-time decision-making. The system features an intuitive interface, patient record management, and AI-driven diagnostic insights with visual and textual explanations. While usability testing with simulated case studies demonstrated its potential, real-world deployment and large-scale clinical validation are yet to be conducted. The system is designed with scalability in mind, allowing for future adaptation to different LMIC settings. However, limitations such as dataset imbalance and exclusion of pediatric data remain. Future research will focus on refining the model, expanding the dataset, and conducting extensive clinical validation before real-world implementation. This study serves as a foundational step toward AI-driven diagnostic tools in resource-limited healthcare environments.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".