What are we modeling? An evaluation of depressive symptom trajectory models from adolescence to early midlife in the Add Health cohort
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
It is critical to understand the development of depressive symptoms across life stages. Existing research has primarily explored this from a life course perspective, yielding inconsistent depressive trajectories, and raising questions as to whether life course processes best characterize the evolution of depressive symptoms across life stages. This study compares ten longitudinal models from four theoretical perspectives ( life course , enduring , autoregressive , and hybrid ) to identify the best-fitting, theoretically-informed model of depressive symptom development from adolescence to early midlife. Results indicate a hybrid model that combines enduring and autoregressive perspectives outperforms traditional life course models and best fits the data. This hybrid model suggests depressive symptom levels at baseline remain relatively stable across life stages, with past symptom levels predicting future levels. Additionally, it reveals racial/ethnic and gender differences in symptom levels in early adolescence, as well as racial/ethnic differences in longitudinal patterns. These findings advance theoretical understanding of depressive symptom development among US young adults across early portions of the life course. • This study compares life course, enduring, autoregressive, and hybrid models of depressive symptoms in the Add Health cohort. • A hybrid model which combines enduring and autoregressive perspectives outperforms life course models of depressive development. • This model suggests baseline depressive levels stay stable across life stages, with past levels predicting future levels. • There are racial/ethnic and gender differences in depressive symptom levels in early adolescence. • There are racial/ethnic differences in the longitudinal patterns of depressive development from adolescence to early midlife.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.026 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it