Development and multinational validation of an ensemble deep learning algorithm for detecting and predicting structural heart disease using noisy single-lead electrocardiograms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aims Artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) can detect a range of structural heart diseases (SHDs); however, it has a limited role in community-based screening. We developed and externally validated a noise-resilient single-lead AI-ECG algorithm that can detect SHDs and predict the risk of their development using wearable/portable devices. Methods and results Using 266 740 ECGs from 99 205 patients with paired echocardiographic data at Yale New Haven Hospital, we developed AI Deep learning for Adapting Portable Technology in HEART disease detection (ADAPT-HEART), a noise-resilient, deep learning algorithm, to detect SHDs using lead I ECG. SHD was defined as a composite of having a left ventricular ejection fraction of < 40%, moderate or severe left-sided valvular disease, and severe left ventricular hypertrophy. ADAPT-HEART was validated in four community hospitals in USA, and the population-based cohort of ELSA-Brasil. We assessed the model’s performance as a predictive biomarker among those without baseline SHD across hospital-based sites and the UK Biobank. The development population had a median age of 66 [interquartile range, 54–77] years and included 49 947 (50.3%) women, with 18 896 (19.0%) having any SHD. ADAPT-HEART had an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.879 (95% confidence interval, 0.870–0.888) with good calibration for detecting SHD in the test set, and consistent performance in hospital-based external sites (AUROC: 0.852–0.891) and ELSA-Brasil (AUROC: 0.859). Among individuals without baseline SHD, high vs. low ADAPT-HEART probability conferred a 2.8- to 5.7-fold increase in the risk of future SHD across data sources (all P < 0.05). Conclusion We propose a novel model that detects and predicts a range of SHDs from noisy single-lead ECGs obtainable on portable/wearable devices, providing a scalable strategy for community-based screening and risk stratification for SHD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".