Predicting College Enrollment for Low-Socioeconomic-Status Students Using Machine Learning Approaches
Bibliographic record
Abstract
College enrollment has long been recognized as a critical pathway to better employment prospects and improved economic outcomes. However, the overall enrollment rates have declined in recent years, and students with a lower socioeconomic status (SES) or those from disadvantaged backgrounds remain significantly underrepresented in higher education. To investigate the factors influencing college enrollment among low-SES high school students, this study analyzed data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) using five widely used machine learning algorithms. The sample included 5223 ninth-grade students from lower socioeconomic backgrounds (51% female; Mage = 14.59) whose biological parents or stepparents completed a parental questionnaire. The results showed that, among all five classifiers, the random forest algorithm achieved the highest classification accuracy at 67.73%. Additionally, the top three predictors of enrollment in 2-year or 4-year colleges were students’ overall high school GPA, parental educational expectations, and the number of close friends planning to attend a 4-year college. Conversely, the most important predictors of non-enrollment were high school GPA, parental educational expectations, and the number of close friends who had dropped out of high school. These findings advance our understanding of the factors shaping college enrollment for low-SES students and highlight two important factors for intervention: improving students’ academic performance and fostering future-oriented goals among their peers and parents.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".