Antimicrobial use in pig herds in Ireland: analysis of a national database (2019–2023)
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in human and animal pathogens remains a global One-Health threat. The associations between antimicrobial use (AMU) and the evolution and dissemination of AMR bacteria, and their resistance genes, highlight the importance of monitoring and regulating AMU. Here, we present an analysis of national monitoring data of AMU in pig facilities in Ireland from 2019 to 2023 via the recently established National AMU Database. AMU was measured using two metrics (mg per corrected population units (mg/PCU) and defined daily dose (DDDvet/PCU)). Temporal trend models were fit using regression models with population average effects given there were multiple observations per herd, while controlling for herd type and size. RESULTS: Linear spline models revealed no significant change in overall usage from Q1-2019 until mid-2020, followed by a significant decrease in usage until mid-2022. There was evidence of increases in usage from mid-2022 until the end of the time series; the exact timing of the changes in trends varied by the AMU metric. A multinomial logit regression model suggested that there was a significantly decreased probability of premix use relative to oral administration from Q3-2021 through Q4-2023 (OR: 0.70 - 0.58; P < 0.03). The predicted probability that a high priority critically important antimicrobial (HPCIA) was used in a herd during a year-quarter declined by an average of 9% per quarter (OR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.90-0.92; p < 0.001) over the study period. The mean decline in use of cephalosporin (3rd /4th generation), fluoroquinolone and macrolide (a former HPCIA) per quarter were estimated to be -12% (95% CI: -8- -15%), -9% (95% CI: -8- -10%) and - 4% (95% CI: -2- -4%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This exploration of AMU in pigs in Ireland revealed significant changes in overall usage, with both decreases and increases. There were declines in usage of HPCIA agents. Additionally, there was evidence of a significant decline in the use of oral premixes, coinciding with policy change. Further monitoring of AMU is essential to understand how the pig farming sector is responding to policy changes (e.g., increasing AMU in response to zinc oxide bans).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it