Linking Trade Data from Different National Statistical Offices Through a Private Set Intersection
Bibliographic record
Abstract
National Statistical Offices (NSOs) collect extensive data on the international activities of firms within their borders. However, they typically lack information about the foreign partners with whom these firms trade. Linking import data from one NSO to corresponding export data from a partner NSO could significantly enhance statistics on firms’ international operations. While technically feasible, such linkage is legally constrained by strict privacy laws. Private set intersection (PSI) protocols may help address privacy concerns but require unique identifiers to avoid linkage errors. To overcome this limitation, we propose a PSI protocol with three innovations. First, we estimate the rates of linkage error by modeling the number of links from a given record. Second, we adjust an estimated population mean according to the estimated linkage accuracy. Lastly, our adjustment explicitly accounts for this accuracy without assuming a particular relationship among the target variables.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.064 | 0.165 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.008 | 0.020 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".