The role of machine learning in infectious disease early detection and prediction in the MENA region: A systematic review
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This systematic review analyzes the implementation and effectiveness of machine learning (ML) approaches for infectious disease surveillance and prediction across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, studies published between 2016 and 2024 were examined to assess model structures, performance metrics, and dataset characteristics. The findings reveal a predominance of deep learning approaches, particularly Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), achieving mean accuracy rates of 96.3 % in pathogen detection from medical imaging. Random Forest algorithms demonstrated superior performance in disease outbreak prediction, with mean ACC scores of 0.85. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt emerged as regional leaders, collectively contributing 54 % of the analyzed studies. The temporal analysis showed peak research output in 2022 (n = 30 studies), followed by a 25 % decline in 2023. Despite promising performance, challenges such as data quality, infrastructural limitations, and algorithmic bias persist. This review highlights the need for standardized protocols, enhanced digital infrastructure, and collaborative efforts to realize the full potential of ML in enhancing public health interventions across the region. Future research directions should prioritize multi-center validation studies, standardized reporting frameworks, and integration of diverse data modalities to enhance model robustness and clinical applicability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.008 | 0.047 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".