Cascading hazards, cascading consequences: Linking social-ecological systems in post-fire recovery
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Wildfires initiate a disturbance cascade in montane watersheds, often resulting in post-fire flooding and debris flows. These cascading hazards have cascading consequences for people’s lives that are not easily enumerated and occur over longer time horizons than are accounted for in post-fire response mechanisms. Drawing on more than two years of ethnographic fieldwork involving participant observation and interviews, I examine the complex circumstances of people’s lives in a rural, unincorporated community in northern Colorado following the Cameron Peak Fire in 2020. I demonstrate that while social and ecological disturbances can occur in a kind of feedback loop, tracing ecological disturbances can help us anticipate and respond to social ones. Drawing on existing ecological frameworks of the wildfire-flood disturbance cascade to interrogate the wildfire-social disturbance cascade enables the possibility of responding to wildfire in a way that explicitly links social-ecological systems. Conceptualizing wildfire as dual disturbance cascades—social and ecological—could facilitate research that examines the implications of flooding and debris flows following wildfire in a more systematic way.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".