Conv-Ensemble for Solar Power Prediction With First Nations Seasonal Information
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Power generation forecasting, especially for solar power, is crucial for future energy planning. In this study, a novel framework, namely <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">FNS-Metrics</i>, is proposed to integrate seasonal information from First Nations calendars into solar power forecasting. Furthermore, a novel Conv-Ensemble framework is proposed, leveraging the high-level feature extraction capabilities of Conv1D layers along with the low-level feature extraction abilities of transformer and LSTM networks. A weighted feature concatenation technique is also integrated into the proposed approach to combine the features effectively. To validate the proposed FNS-Metrics and Conv-Ensemble framework, a new dataset is constructed by collecting power and weather data from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Center in Alice Springs and integrating data related to First Nations seasonal cycles. Experiments on this dataset show that the Conv-Ensemble framework with FNS-Metrics outperforms traditional approaches, achieving state-of-the-art solar power prediction with the highest <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$R^{2}$</tex-math></inline-formula> of 0.8641 and the lowest MSE of 22.41. These represent a 14.60% and 26.21% increase compared to the baseline configuration of Conv-Transformer. The ablation study demonstrates that the Conv-Ensemble framework improves performance compared to the baselines. Furthermore, the results for individual and combined FNS-Metrics features show a progressive improvement in performance.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it