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Record W4411643745 · doi:10.1017/s0272263125100922

Bayesian estimation in multiple comparisons

2025· article· en· W4411643745 on OpenAlexafffund
Guilherme D. Garcia

Bibliographic record

VenueStudies in Second Language Acquisition · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversité Laval
FundersSocial Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada
KeywordsBayesian probabilityEstimationBayes estimatorStatisticsComputer scienceEconometricsMathematicsEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Traditional regression models typically estimate parameters for a factor F by designating one level as a reference (intercept) and calculating slopes for other levels of F. While this approach often aligns with our research question(s), it limits direct comparisons between all pairs of levels within F and requires additional procedures for generating these comparisons. Moreover, Frequentist methods often rely on corrections (e.g., Bonferroni or Tukey), which can reduce statistical power and inflate uncertainty by mechanically widening confidence intervals. This paper demonstrates how Bayesian hierarchical models provide a robust framework for parameter estimation in the context of multiple comparisons. By leveraging entire posterior distributions, these models produce estimates for all pairwise comparisons without requiring post hoc adjustments. The hierarchical structure, combined with the use of priors, naturally incorporates shrinkage, pulling extreme estimates toward the overall mean. This regularization improves the stability and reliability of estimates, particularly in the presence of sparse or noisy data, and leads to more conservative comparisons. Bayesian models also offer a flexible framework for addressing heteroscedasticity by directly modeling variance structures and incorporating them into the posterior distribution. The result is a coherent approach to exploring differences between levels of F , where parameter estimates reflect the full uncertainty of the data.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.189
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.509
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.189
Threshold uncertainty score0.998

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.1890.509
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0030.003
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0060.005
Bibliometrics0.0060.007
Science and technology studies0.0020.008
Scholarly communication0.0060.006
Open science0.0080.006
Research integrity0.0050.011
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0100.002

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.061
GPT teacher head0.421
Teacher spread0.361 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2025
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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