MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4411734729 · doi:10.1093/socpro/spaf023

Militarizing the Climate Crisis: An Analysis of the Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Militarization on Nations’ Carbon Emissions, 1990–2020

2025· article· en· W4411734729 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueSocial Problems · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Canadian institutionsUniversity of British Columbia
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMilitarizationShort runEconomicsDevelopment economicsPolitical scienceMacroeconomicsPolitics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT Building on scholarship in global political economy, historical sociology, and environmental sociology, as well as emerging streams of research on militarization and climate change, we theorize about and successively investigate the short-run and long-run effects of two far-reaching characteristics of militarization on nations’ carbon emissions and the climate crisis in general. We contend that emergent and changing conditions associated with the capital-intensiveness and size of militaries shape path dependencies, which structure short-run and long-run effects on carbon pollution. To test our propositions, we estimate dynamic models of emissions for 104 nations from 1990 to 2020. Overall, the findings confirm our arguments. The short-run and long-run effects of the capital-intensiveness and size of militaries on carbon emissions are positive and nontrivial. Further, their estimated short-run and long-run effects are consistent across three distinct measures of carbon emissions, statistically symmetrical, robust to different modeling techniques, and not sensitive to any nations included in the analysis.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.609
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.002
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.009
GPT teacher head0.282
Teacher spread0.273 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it