Estimating Snow-Related Daily Change Events in the Canadian Winter Season: A Deep Learning-Based Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Snow water equivalent (SWE), an essential parameter of snow, is largely studied to understand the impact of climate regime effects on snowmelt patterns. This study developed a Siamese Attention U-Net (Si-Att-UNet) model to detect daily change events in the winter season. The daily SWE change event detection task is treated as an image content comparison problem in which the Si-Att-UNet compares a pair of SWE maps sampled at two temporal windows. The model detected SWE similarity and dissimilarity with an F1 score of 99.3% at a 50% confidence threshold. The change events were derived from the model’s prediction of SWE similarity using the 50% threshold. Daily SWE change events increased between 1979 and 2018. However, the SWE change events were significant in March and April, with a positive Mann–Kendall test statistic (tau = 0.25 and 0.38, respectively). The highest frequency of zero-change events occurred in February. A comparison of the SWE change events and mean change segments with those of the northern hemisphere’s climate anomalies revealed that low temperature and low precipitation anomalies reduced the frequency of SWE change events. The findings highlight the influence of climate variables on daily changes in snow-related water storage in March and April.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".