The political life cycle and electoral mobilisation among immigrant-origin and native citizens during the 2021 German election
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In many European countries, voters of immigrant origin show lower levels of electoral mobilisation than native voters. This article presents a novel and probability-based panel survey conducted during the 2021 Bundestag election campaign in Duisburg, a major German city, in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. The survey includes both immigrant-origin and native German citizens and additional contextual data from respondents’ countries of origin, administrative city boroughs and the election campaign. Three core indicators of electoral mobilisation are examined: political interest, propensity to vote and perceived ease of voting. The article traces group differences between immigrant-origin and native voters across three phases of the political life cycle: during the time of politically coming of age, resource accumulation (through education and employment), and pre-election mobilisation. The findings highlight persistent gaps in mobilisation between immigrant-origin and native voters with the former being disadvantaged at all three phases, and call for a theoretical framework that integrates voters of all backgrounds, rather than treating immigrant-origin voters as an exceptional case.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it