Higher eQTL power reveals signals that boost GWAS colocalization
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) studies in human cohorts typically detect at least one regulatory signal per gene, and have been proposed as a way to explain mechanisms of genetic liability for other traits, as discovered in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). In particular, eQTL signals may colocalize with GWAS signals, suggesting gene expression as a possible mediator. However, recent studies have noted colocalization occurs infrequently, even when expression is measured in biologically relevant tissues. Most eQTL studies to date include only hundreds of individuals, and are underpowered to discover distal regulatory signals explaining smaller fractions of gene expression variance. We integrate evidence from recent eQTL studies and demonstrate that limited statistical power due to sample size skews the detection of eQTL signals identified at various signal strengths. We estimate that a sample size of 500 detects <0.1 to 60% of eQTL for a range of signal strengths and that a sample size of 2,000 would detect 36.8% of all eQTL. We show that eQTL signals that can only be discovered in larger studies exhibit characteristics more similar to those of GWAS signals, including greater distance to the regulated gene and higher probability of loss intolerance. Finally, using results from recent eQTL studies and meta-analyses, we observe a large increase in detected colocalizations with GWAS signals compared to previous studies. These findings caution against overinterpreting the absence of colocalization in underpowered studies and provide guidance for designing future eQTL experiments, to improve power and complement perturbation-based approaches in characterizing gene-trait mechanisms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it