Downstream carbon leakage from upstream carbon tariffs: Evidence from trade tariffs
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Pricing the carbon content of imports, or carbon tariffs , is being considered as a solution to policy-induced carbon leakage. However, the unilateral implementation of carbon tariffs could have unintended consequences, such as further emissions reshuffling or costly trade retaliation. This is particularly the case as proposed carbon tariffs will target emissions from upstream products. This paper estimates how upstream carbon tariffs will affect carbon leakage by exploiting variation in export tariffs. Using a two-country model, I first show that an upstream carbon tariff can lead to emissions leakage down the supply chain. Empirically, I estimate the upstream and downstream foreign emissions effects of export tariffs using plausibly exogenous increases in export tariffs during the 2018–2019 trade war for US manufacturing facilities, while controlling for other tariff changes. While I find evidence that US greenhouse gas emitting facilities respond to export tariffs on their outputs by reducing their emissions, I also find evidence of increased emissions from downstream facilities through input–output linkages. In the case of the US manufacturing industries that faced export tariff increases during the trade war, emissions increases from input users could offset the emissions reductions from facilities in upstream targeted industries. Results in this paper highlight the importance of input–output linkages for the net emissions effect of incomplete carbon tariffs.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it