A Systematic Categorization of Performance Measures for Estimated Non‐Linear Associations Between an Outcome and Continuous Predictors
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT In regression analysis, associations between continuous predictors and the outcome are often assumed to be linear. However, modeling the associations as non‐linear can improve model fit. Many flexible modeling techniques, like (fractional) polynomials and spline‐based approaches, are available. Such methods can be systematically compared in simulation studies, which require suitable performance measures to evaluate the accuracy of the estimated curves against the true data‐generating functions. Although various measures have been proposed in the literature, no systematic overview exists so far. To fill this gap, we introduce a categorization of performance measures for evaluating estimated non‐linear associations between an outcome and continuous predictors. This categorization includes many commonly used measures. The measures can not only be used in simulation studies, but also in application studies to compare different estimates to each other. We further illustrate and compare the behavior of different performance measures through some examples and a Shiny app. This article is categorized under: Statistical and Graphical Methods of Data Analysis > Modeling Methods and Algorithms
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it