Driver analysis of subarctic wildfire severity over a 35-year period
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Large subarctic wildfires are causing environmental damage, releasing stored carbon, and forcing residents to relocate. Subarctic ecosystems are experiencing earlier, longer, and more intense wildfire seasons due in part to factors such as warmer winters and the broader spread of damaging insects. There is limited agreement within existing research on the type of drivers and degree of influence that climate, vegetation and topographic factors have on wildfire severity. Existing research has been limited through using small datasets and applying a limited number of drivers. This study aims to address these gaps by improving upon existing methodological limitations and quantifying the influence of a more comprehensive list of climate, vegetation, and topographic variables on wildfire severity. An XGBoost regression model with an r2 of 0.7 was trained, and shapely values were used to investigate the combined variable contributions to predictions of wildfire severity. This research identified variable importance trends unique to predicting subarctic wildfire severity in rugged regions with cold annual temperatures and short growing seasons. Important variables not previously identified include skin reservoir content, evaporation from vegetation transpiration, wind exposition index, soil temperature, and visible sky percentage, in addition to variables found by existing research, namely pre-fire vegetation, wind speed, topographic position index and land cover. This research helps to build consensus on the factors driving severe wildfires in subarctic ecosystems, and the methods developed could become the basis for future study.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it