Possible effects of cheap fentanyl on drug markets, use, and harm: A theoretical analysis
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The spread of illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF) has been a public health disaster in Canada and the United States, driving overdose deaths to unprecedented levels. It has also changed the production function for drug traffickers, most notably by radically reducing raw materials costs for those producing illegal opioids. This paper explores possible consequences of that cost reduction through the eyes of the actors who comprise the drug supply chain, including Chinese firms who supply Mexican Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) with the precursors of fentanyl, the TCOs responsible for manufacturing fentanyl and shipping it across the U.S. border, the multiple layers of the domestic drug distribution network, along with the money launderers who help facilitate this illegal market. This paper then sketches potential long-run implications for the structure, conduct and performance of the illegal opioid supply industry, and some potential consequences for drug law enforcement organisations.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it