The summer isolated convection regime across the eastern UnitedStates: Geographic extent and regional onset evolution
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Previous studies identified a monsoon-like summer regime of isolated, diurnally-forced convection across the southeastern US (SEUS), but the geographic extent and onset timing of this regime across the eastern US was unresolved. This study focuses on that question using a highresolution radar-based precipitation dataset for a seven-year period. It is found that, on average, onset of the summer isolated convection regime begins in late April in South Florida, extends northward to the Carolinas by mid-May, and to the Canadian border by the end of May. Onset then extends westward from the mid-Atlantic region to just beyond the Mississippi River and as far as east Texas by mid-June. The timing and geographical extent of onset are consistent with previous findings linking this regime with the spring to summer westward migration of the North Atlantic Subtropical High into the SEUS. These results are consistent with the establishment of a more prominent monsoon-like precipitation regime centered in the SEUS as the Earth warms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it