Keeping the Enemies Closer? Exporting Behaviour of Firms Under Conflict
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper uses the terrorist attack in India in 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment to investigate the effect of terrorist activities on exporting behaviour of firms. Using transaction-level international trade data for the universe of exporting firms in Pakistan, we employ a difference-in-differences identification strategy to show that exporters experience a smaller exports value, quantity, and unit value growth in the Indian market after the attack, relative to other countries. Our results shed light on both the intensive and extensive margins of trade, and document heterogeneous responses to the shock across firms, products, and shipping locations. Smaller exporters experienced a larger drop in exports volume and price, while more import-intensive firms, particularly those importing from India, did not witness a decrease in demand. Similarly, the study detects asymmetric responses across products and shipping ports based on proximity to the location of the attack.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it