MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort
Record W4415532040 · doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134447

Quantifying uncertainty in flowrate modelling using spatially defined fuzzy entropy based on hydrological processes in a catchment

2025· article· en· W4415532040 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Hydrology · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicHydrological Forecasting Using AI
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Victoria
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsFuzzy logicWatershedEntropy (arrow of time)Monte Carlo methodSurface runoffUncertainty analysisHydrology (agriculture)Categorical variableProbability distribution

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

• Fuzzy entropy quantifies spatial data uncertainty in a watershed. • A new fuzzy entropy calculation method based on hillslope flow processes is proposed. • A new normalized fuzzy entropy parameters indicates the appropriate watershed scale for modelling runoff. • Complements Monte Carlo analysis with higher computational efficiency and upscaling insight. A method is proposed that uses hillslope hydrological processes to develop measures of fuzzy entropy distribution over a landscape, in order to estimate the uncertainty arising from the spatial distribution of data input to runoff models. How this distribution impacts the upscaling process in watershed hydrological simulations is also explored. Spatially distributed membership functions based on the distribution of numerical (slope) or categorical (landuse and soil type) spatial data inputs to a hydrological model are derived. Fuzzy inferencing that incorporates expert knowledge of flow mechanisms in a watershed is used to create a new variable referred to as runoff potential. Spatial distributions of fuzzy Shannon entropy S F ( μ ij ) are developed and two new parameters: the watershed fuzzy Shannon entropy W S F ( μ ij ) and the normalized watershed fuzzy Shannon entropy W S F ^ μ ij , are proposed to quantify the uncertainty in runoff potential given the spatial distribution of the input data as it changes through the catchment along flowpaths. Comparing the proposed fuzzy entropy-based method with a traditional Monte Carlo method applied with PCSWMM model simulations demonstrates that the proposed method provides additional insights into how uncertainty is generated spatially that a conventional approach cannot provide; while significantly improving computational efficiency. In the application to a 17.46 km 2 , mixed-landuse catchment, W S F ^ μ ij fluctuated greatly at small scales but then reached a stable, constant value within approximately 18.5 % of the total catchment area. Thus, revealing how uncertainty in spatially-scaled processes propagates along hydrological pathways, which thereby provide a reference for model optimization and water resources management at the basin scale.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.071
Threshold uncertainty score0.772

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.049
GPT teacher head0.292
Teacher spread0.243 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it