Risk factors and predictive performance for first healthcare encounter indicating homelessness using administrative data among Calgary residents diagnosed with addiction or mental health conditions
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Individuals diagnosed with addiction or mental health (AMH) conditions are more likely to experience potentially adverse outcomes of homelessness. Despite their link to later outcomes, research on initial episodes of AMH outcomes is limited. This study aims to use administrative data to identify the factors associated with the first healthcare encounters with indicators of homelessness (FHE-H) for individuals diagnosed with AMH. We assessed logistic regression and compared its performance with machine learning models, including random forests and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). We conducted a retrospective cohort study linking several administrative datasets for 232,253 individuals with Alberta health insurance in Calgary, Canada, who were aged between 18 and 65 and diagnosed with AMH between April 1, 2013, and March 31, 2018. We assessed outcomes in two years following cohort entry. Individuals with episodes of FHE-H (2,606 individuals) before the index date were excluded. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with outcomes by estimating adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals. Among 229,647 individuals diagnosed with AMH, 1,886 (0.82%) experienced FHE-H during the follow-up period. Mental health emergency visits (AORs=5.28 [95% CI: 4.41, 6.33]), substance misuse (AORs=3.87 [95% CI: 3.28, 4.56], substance use disorders (AORs=2.03 [95% CI: 1.64, 2.50]), and male sex (AORs=1.28 [95% CI: 1.14, 1.44]) were associated with FHE-H. XGBoost performance improved over logistic regression, with increases in area under the curve (AUC) by 1% and precision by 2%. Overall, several AMH features were associated with FHE-H, and machine learning models outperformed logistic regression, although to a small degree.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it